China's official Manufacturing Purchasing managers'index (PMI) is expected to fall to 51 in August, high-frequency data such as coal consumption for power generation show weak industrial production, while rising trade frictions between China and the United States will drag down export performance, according to the median estimate of 38 analysts compiled by Reuters.
"Overall, the leading indicators indicate that manufacturing production is likely to slow down. The escalation of Sino-US trade frictions will have an impact on the expectations of manufacturing production and operation activities, and the export order index may decline. Liu Xuezhi, financial research center of Bank of Communications, said that the international crude oil price shocks slightly downward, PPI increase narrowed, will affect the manufacturing industry PMI price index decline; the recent high temperature and typhoon rainy weather, will also affect the operation of the manufacturing industry.
The same forecast was made by Lu Zhengyi and others at Xingye Research, who said that in production, the daily average increase in coal consumption of the six major power generating groups declined in mid-early August, reflecting the weakness of production activities in August; on the one hand, Sino-US trade frictions may continue to drag down new export orders PMI.

<>China's official manufacturing PMI in August

 

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